Wednesday, May 19, 2004
It's not nice to be wrong.
Some weeks ago I suggested that Asian markets will continue doing well relative to their US counterparts. Not only that, I also asserted my view that Taiwan, India and Malaysia would be the ideal markets to have an overweight position.
But not only has Asia as a whole underperformed global equity markets, but my picks Taiwan, India and Malaysia have in fact been the worst performing Asian markets.
I will follow what Suze Orman says are the 6 most powerful words a person can say:
I admit that I was wrong.
Dead wrong.
I failed to anticipate that the political uncertainties in India and Taiwan would weigh so heavily on their respective markets. I did not think the KLCI would buckle so hard and fall so far. And I underestimated the negative impact that rising oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty in Iraq, and anticipation of a Fed Funds rate hike would have on Asian markets.
But now that markets have become so oversold and investors are on the verge of panic, my take is that we should roll out the shopping cart and start buying again. I am cautiously bullish going into the second half of 2004, and I think a rebound is due. There is blood on the streets. This is when the smart money should move in. I think stocks are good for a short term trade, with tight stops.
Some weeks ago I suggested that Asian markets will continue doing well relative to their US counterparts. Not only that, I also asserted my view that Taiwan, India and Malaysia would be the ideal markets to have an overweight position.
But not only has Asia as a whole underperformed global equity markets, but my picks Taiwan, India and Malaysia have in fact been the worst performing Asian markets.
I will follow what Suze Orman says are the 6 most powerful words a person can say:
I admit that I was wrong.
Dead wrong.
I failed to anticipate that the political uncertainties in India and Taiwan would weigh so heavily on their respective markets. I did not think the KLCI would buckle so hard and fall so far. And I underestimated the negative impact that rising oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty in Iraq, and anticipation of a Fed Funds rate hike would have on Asian markets.
But now that markets have become so oversold and investors are on the verge of panic, my take is that we should roll out the shopping cart and start buying again. I am cautiously bullish going into the second half of 2004, and I think a rebound is due. There is blood on the streets. This is when the smart money should move in. I think stocks are good for a short term trade, with tight stops.
